Who May Be Protected From December’s Rule 5 Draft

By RaysRadio

At the GM meetings in Boca Raton, it wasn’t exactly quiet for the Rays, but there were no moves made there. However, that will change in a week as November 20th is another important date for the Rays as they prepare for 2016 and beyond. It’s the last day teams can add players to the 40-man roster, or risk losing them next month in the Rule 5 Draft. As we’ve done in the past, here’s a simple way of explaining which players will not be protected unless they’re added to the 40-man roster:

-Players signed at age 19 or older and have played in four seasons

-Players signed at age 18 or younger and have played in five seasons

That would cover most college players drafted in 2012 or prior and high school / international players signed in 2011 or earlier.

If a player is taken in the Rule 5 draft, that player must spend the entire season in the majors, or be offered back to the team that had them initially. A Rule 5 player can be claimed off waivers during the season, but the rules are the same: that they must remain on the major league roster of the team that claims the player. When the Rays decide to protect a player, they’re considering a couple of factors. First, how important is that player in the short and long term. Second, if he’s unprotected, how likely is that player to stick in the majors for the entire 2016 season. The one player the Rays lost last year, catcher Oscar Hernandez, had not played above low-A Bowling Green, but stuck with the Diamondbacks, in part because he was injured a portion of the MLB season, and spent significant time on the DL.

Last year in addition to Hernandez these Rule 5 selections stayed in the majors the entire season:

Odubel Herrera (Philadelphia)

Mark Canha (Oakland)

Delino DeShields Jr (Texas)

Jason Garcia (Baltimore)

J.R. Graham (Minnesota)

Taylor Featherston (Los Angeles Angels)

Andrew McKirahan (Atlanta Braves)

Sean Gilmartin (New York Mets)

Daniel Winkler (Atlanta Braves)

David Rollins (Seattle Mariners)

Some of those players, especially DeShields, has a very positive impact on a winning club. However, rules now protect teams much more than when players like Josh Hamilton, Jose Bautista or Johan Santana were Rule 5 selections. Either way, it’s still easier for last-place or non-contending teams to keep Rule 5 players, because when not competing for a playoff spot, a team can absorb that risk and look at the long-term ceiling of that player. It also allows that team the chance to avoid calling up another player already in their system who may not be ready.

For the Rays, looking long-term is essential, but this must be determined: is the player they are looking to protect one that can contribute to a major league playoff contender, not just a major league team. One player the Rays would have had to consider, Boog Powell, already was traded to Seattle in the Nathan Karns deal. That said, here are some names to consider, in alphabetical order:

Armando Araiza: Since catching is hard to find and Hernandez was chosen last season, we listed Araiza, who played last year for the Advanced-A Charlotte Stone Crabs. The 22-year-old hit just .203 with four homers and 24 RBI. However, he did throw out 45 percent of runners trying to steal, but Hernandez had a much-more advanced bat when chosen a year ago.

Jake Faria: the 22-year-old led the minors in wins this season in a breakthrough campaign. Faria, the 10th round 2011 pick of the Rays out of high school in California, was 17–4 with a 1.92 ERA between Charlotte and Montgomery, spending half the season at each location. In 149.2 innings, Faria gave up just 103 hits while walking 52 and striking out 159. Faria was Charlotte’s MVP, and pitched for two playoff teams while starting the Florida State League All-Star game. Faria gave up only six homers, and has allowed just 24 during his minor league career.

Taylor Guerrieri: the top Rays pick in 2011, Guerrieri was on the fast track before Tommy John surgery derailed him in 2013 while pitching for Bowling Green. Guerrieri had already been an All-Star with the Hot Rods in the Midwest League and with Hudson Valley in the New York Penn League. This year the righty was on an innings limit pitching for Charlotte and Montgomery, and he was quite effective. Guerrieri had a 1.85 ERA, allowing 65 hits in 78 innings while collecting nearly a 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.qd88

Tyler Goeddel: Goeddel was the 41st overall pick in the 2011 draft, and this year was his first since moving from the infield to the outfield. Goeddel had a good overall season, with a strong April and final month of the year. Overall, the 23-year-old finished with his best numbers, collecting double digits in doubles, triple, and homers, while also stealing 28 bases for Double-A Montgomery. With the Biscuits, Goddel finished 2015 with 12 HR, 72 RBI, a .279 average and a .783 OPS.

Patrick Leonard: Leonard was acquired from the Kansas City Royals in the James Shields trade, and the 23-year-old has had a slow and steady climb. This year the 6–4 corner infielder played in Double-A Montgomery. where he appeared in 120 games. Leonard had a strong second half where he had an .830 OPS (.681 in the first half) and overall batted .256 with 45 extra-base hits, including 10 homers, 43 RBI and 11 steals.

German Marquez: An interesting case, Marquez doesn’t turn 21 until February. The righty is a hard thrower, with a live arm that includes a mid 90s fastball and a plus breaking ball. That said, Marquez’s potential has not yet yielded great results. Marquez battled through a difficult season, going 7–13 with a 4.40 ERA for High-A Charlotte. He only walked 29 batters in a career-best 139 innings, but also gave up 147 hits while striking out 104 (6.7 per nine innings).

Taylor Motter: Motter was not protected last year, but could very well be added to the 40-man this season. A 17th round pick in 2011, Motter continues to improve each year. In 2015, his first in Triple-A, Motter was an All-Star, playing 127 games for Durham, and batting .292 with an .837 OPS. Motter had 58 extra-base hits, including 14 homers and 72 RBI while also stealing 26 bases. Motter is currently in winter ball, playing shortstop in the Dominican Republic, the position Motter originally played in college. In the Rays organization, Motter has played more outfield than infield the past two years, but showing he can play the infield would certainly help his versatility and cause going forward.

Joey Rickard: a ninth round pick in the 2012 draft out of the University of Arizona, Rickard is coming off his best season after playing just 68 games in 2014 due to injury. Rickard, an outfielder, moved from Charlotte to Montgomery to Durham, and put up better numbers with each jump. All told, Rickard played 117 games and hit .321 with a .427 on-base percentage and .874 OPS. He walked 69 times, striking out 75, and collected 38 extra-base hits, including two homers, while driving in 55 runs. Rickard also was the Organization’s Baserunner of the Year, going 23 of 29 on stolen base attempts while collecting eight triples. Rickard also is playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic.

Mark Sappington: the hard-throwing righty was acquired last year from the Angels for lefty Cesar Ramos. Sappington, who initially was a starter in the Angels system, had recently transitioned to the bullpen and continued that transition with the Rays. Sappington, a fifth round pick in 2012 out of Rockhurst University, made 48 appearances for Double-A Montgomery, going 3–5 with four saves and a 4.08 ERA. Sappington walked 45 and allowed 63 hits in 68.1 innings, striking out 71. Sappington who was better in the second half than the first, also was the organization’s Eric Walker Community Champion winner for his community service.

Blake Snell: the last name mentioned, only because this is by alphabetical order, Snell is the most obvious addition to the 40-man. He was pitcher of the year for the Rays, by Baseball America, and USA Today’s Player of the Year. Snell, the 52nd overall pick in the 2011 draft, really came into his own this year, rising from Advanced-A Charlotte to Double-A Montgomery and then Triple-A Durham. Between the three clubs, Snell was 15–4 with a 1.41 ERA. The ERA was the lowest in the minors since Justin Verlander had a 1.29 ERA in 2005. In 134 innings, Snell allowed only 84 hits, while walking 53 and striking out 163. Snell began the year with a scoreless innings streak of 46 frames, giving him 49 total dating back to last year.